top of page

Monthly report, February 2025


In the latest edition of our monthly report:


Editorial


DeepSeek, the wake-up call for AI

  • The USA are not alone in the world;

  • Initial verdict on DeepSeek to be fine-tuned; and

  • The end of the AI bull market, or the next stage?


What consequences can we expect for the markets?

There's no doubt that Nvidia's “insane” margins will come under pressure, but in the not-too-distant future, a significant increase in volumes could well compensate for this erosion and revive profit growth in the sector.

- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)


Assessment of the economic situation

US inflation continues to rebound but comes in below expectations. The European economy, with its very modest growth forecasts, could receive an unexpected “boost” from consumers.

  • European consumer spending could surprise;

  • DeepSeek increases downward pressure on uranium; and

  • First salvos of tariffs.

 

What about the SNB's monetary policy?

By cutting rates by 0.5% at the end of last year, the SNB, as mentioned last month, protected itself from further rate cuts by the ECB. This was confirmed on January 30, when the franc failed to react to a further rate cut announced by the ECB at its first meeting of the year.

On the other hand, if the ECB were to increase the pace or amplitude of its next rate cuts, the 0.93 level could prove difficult to maintain.



Financial markets during the month

Despite very cautious analyst enthusiasm and a strong preference for the US market, European indices outperformed their US counterparts in January.

  • European indices outperform the US in January;

  • The ECB finally “bends” the 10-year Bund; and

  • Only in America.

 

Our convictions


Comments on investment decisions

The DeepSeek shock has shaken the American semiconductor and independent power producer sectors. European luxury goods performed rather well, as did Swiss pharmaceuticals. Gold continued to rise, despite a still-solid US dollar. Long bonds remain correlated with equities.

  • Equities;

  • Bonds;

  • Precious metals, listed real estate (REIT); and

  • Currencies.

 

Performance summary

  • Equity performances; and

  • Performance of bonds, currencies and commodities



 

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualised advice from his/her financial, legal and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.


DIFC: This document is directed at Professional Clients as defined under the rules and regulations of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Probus Pleion Middle East Limited is regulated by the DFSA.


Switzerland: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Probus Pleion Suisse SA is regulated by the FINMA.


Mauritius: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Financial Services Commission (FSC).


Luxembourg: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. Clients’ data is protected under the REGULATION (EU) 2016/679 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 27 April 2016 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data, and repealing Directive 95/46/EC (General Data Protection Regulation).


Data Privacy Policy Important Notice: Companies within the Probus Pleion Group recognise the importance of keeping the personal data of its customers and other counter-parties confidential and protecting their privacy rights. While each company within the Probus Pleion Group has its own privacy policy in accordance with the applicable standards, you may access Probus Pleion Group global privacy policy at the following URL: https://www.probuspleion.com/data-protection-policy

bottom of page