Publications & Press

The prospect of a global economy mired in stagflation is gaining momentum, and there is little time left before it becomes a tangible reality. In the meantime, we must avoid drastic measures and remain as flexible as possible. In other words, we must be cautious without panicking.

The goldilocks environment of early 2026 has been upended by the significant rise in energy prices resulting from the Iran war. Every passing day without a resolution increases the odds of an inflationary bust, i.e. slowing growth and rising inflation. While every economy is set to be affected if the situation persists, net importers of energy with limited reserves will be affected the most. The US should fare relatively better, while Europe and many Asian countries appear pa

We are proud to announce that Probus Pleion features among Switzerland's most influential independent asset managers for 2026...

The positive economic figures published recently could well be revised downward in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices are rising, as is the overall level of uncertainty.

The latest economic data from the US and Europe point to an acceleration of the upturn seen in recent months. Geopolitical turmoil is not (for the moment) hampering these positive figures...

A new geopolitical shock that the world could have done without, orchestrated without congressional approval by an uncontrollable American president. The idea of Venezuelan oil flooding the markets will remain a fantasy for the next 10 years.

The outlook for the global economy remains encouraging, given accommodative fiscal deficits, recent rate cuts, low energy prices, and a weak USD. The US government shutdown has raised concerns about the economy, particularly the labour market, but the (fragile) combination of...

Probus Pleion Middle East Limited features in Citywire Middle East's Top Independent Asset Managers 2025

The technology sector, which has recently experienced a slowdown in market momentum, could well cede its “yellow jersey” to the industrial sector in 2026. A less “glamorous” sector, but one that is more predictable and resilient.

The AI theme is sweeping all before it, but massive bond issues by Oracle and Meta are raising some questions. Gold is consolidating its latest surge, while green energy is becoming “investable” again.

Although the current reacceleration of US inflation could complicate the Fed’s monetary policy decision, it has become increasingly clear that global governments are erring on the side of monetary and fiscal largesse. This should continue to support nominal growth.

The US economic growth in Q2, revised upward twice, finally stands at 3.8%. French debt continues to increase, with no immediate political solutions in sight. Gold is soaring once again.

In September, we will see the beginning of the U.S. rate-cutting cycle. If the process is measured and well communicated, it will support U.S. companies by lowering their financial burden. This should trigger a repositioning toward so-called riskier assets. Stay diversified.

While the customs duties imposed on the EU and Japan are ultimately a lesser evil, the 39% imposed on Swiss industry is a real blow that is sure to weigh on the prices of many Swiss stocks in the coming quarters.

The third quarter has the potential to be one of “all hazards”, as markets enter it with no real margin of safety. Keeping some cash in reserve to seize opportunities will be the right option in case of bad weather.