Monthly Report, May 2026
- 17 hours ago
- 3 min read
Editorial
Don't underestimate Iran's resilience
The bombing campaign didn't produce the expected results.
Japan is (slightly) complaining, while China bides its time.
A (brief) spike in oil prices before we emerge from the crisis?
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
Patience is more important than ever. Trying to predict when the crisis will end seems futile, but keeping some cash on hand to buy quality stocks on dips remains for us to be the best strategy for the coming weeks.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices firmly above $100, and the resulting inflation is slowing down the economies of oil-importing countries. Central banks find themselves in a difficult position.
US economic growth in Q1 "disappoints," but stays resilient.
The supply of jet fuel is a problem in Europe.
King Charles forces Trump to back down on whiskey tariffs.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
On April 26, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) released data on household wealth. In 2025, household wealth increased by 119 billion francs to reach 3,278 billion francs (+3.8%). This increase is largely due to the growth in their occupational pension entitlements. "Mandatory" savings, combined with voluntary savings, are factors that may moderate consumption growth. With the franc remaining as strong as ever (0.917 against the euro), it becomes clearer why Swiss inflation remains modest despite the current global context.
Financial markets during the month
After a very poor March, equity markets staged a spectacular rebound in April, driven in particular by the semiconductor sector. Oil, despite volatility, remained near its highs.
The S&P 500 hits a new high, thanks to semiconductors.
The market no longer expects the Fed to cut rates in 2026.
Central bank gold purchases rose over the quarter.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The stock market is looking beyond the current conflict in the Middle East, but this confidence could erode as the current stalemate drags on. Bond yields continue to rise, while oil prices are hovering near recent highs. Gold continues to consolidate, and the real estate market is suffering from rising yields.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REITs).
Currencies.
Performance Summary
Equity.
Bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
DIFC: This document is directed at Professional Clients as defined under the rules and regulations of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Probus Pleion Middle East Limited is regulated by the DFSA.
Switzerland: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Probus Pleion Suisse SA is regulated by the FINMA.
Mauritius: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Financial Services Commission (FSC). Probus Pleion Investment Adviser Ltd is licensed and regulated by the FSC.
Luxembourg: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. Clients’ data is protected under the REGULATION (EU) 2016/679 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 27 April 2016 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data and repealing Directive 95/46/EC (General Data Protection Regulation).
Data Privacy Policy Important Notice: Companies within the Probus Pleion Group recognise the importance of keeping the personal data of its customers and other counter-parties confidential and protecting their privacy rights. While each company within the Probus Pleion Group has its own privacy policy in accordance with the applicable standards, you may access Probus Pleion Group global privacy policy at the following URL:
