Monthly Report, March 2026
- Mar 1
- 3 min read
Editorial
And now it's Iran's turn!
The epilogue to a conflict that has lasted 47 years?
The blockade of the Hormuz Strait causes oil prices to surge.
The market had partially priced in the current scenario.
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
Control of the Strait of Hormuz, to prevent a sustained spike in oil prices, will remain a key factor in the conflict for financial markets. Brent crude above $90/95 will be a threshold that cannot be crossed for long, at the risk of seeing a marked slowdown in the global economy.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The positive economic figures published recently could well be revised downward in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices are rising, as is the overall level of uncertainty.
US GDP growth slows in Q4, but there is a reason to it.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz mainly affects China.
US trade deficit stable in 2025, despite tariffs.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirmed a final net profit of CHF 26.1 billion for the 2025 financial year as a whole, compared with a gain of CHF 80.7 billion in 2024. More interestingly, its gold reserves of 1,040 tons saw their value increase by CHF 36.3 billion, while its foreign currency positions generated a loss of CHF 8.8 billion. Finally, foreign exchange losses alone amounted to CHF 53.1 billion, mainly due to the sharp decline in the US dollar in 2025. This profit will enable the payment of CHF 4 billion, with one-third going to the Confederation and two-thirds to the cantons.
Financial markets during the month
Beneath its calm exterior, the S&P 500 hides massive sector rotations. AI is seen as a threat to software, but also to intermediation in the broadest sense. Private debt is worrying the market.
The potential threat of AI causes the software sector to crash.
Private debt is causing concern and putting pressure on the sector.
Cocoa, back to square one.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The geopolitical chaos orchestrated by Donald Trump is back in full swing after the attack on Iran on February 28. Oil prices are skyrocketing, while the medium-term consequences of the US military operation remain unclear.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REITs).
Currencies.
Performance Summary
Equity.
Bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
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