Monthly Report, April 2026
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
Editorial
Mr. Trump, do you have a plan?
An assault carried out without a clear strategy.
What is Donald Trump's way out?
Financial markets are resilient, but for how long?
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
The prospect of a global economy mired in stagflation is gaining momentum, and there is little time left before it becomes a tangible reality. In the meantime, we must avoid drastic measures and remain as flexible as possible. In other words, we must be cautious without panicking.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The sharp rise in energy costs is already affecting inflation figures but has not yet spread to all goods and services. If this situation persists, the spectre of recession could well resurface.
The surge in energy prices is already reflected in inflation.
Fuel prices have risen the most in Southeast Asia.
The Republicans are losing control of the Senate.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was active in the foreign exchange market in March, intervening in the euro/franc pair around the 0.90 level. This level was even briefly breached on the downside on March 9, but the euro subsequently managed to recover and rebound to around 0.92. Regarding the rebound in inflation, the market expects a 0.25% hike in the SNB's key interest rate in 2026, but given the strength of the franc, we do not believe this will happen. We expect the SNB to monitor the ECB's decisions and allow the interest rate differential with the euro to widen further.
Financial markets during the month
All stock markets suffered significant losses in March, but some managed to hold on to a small portion of their year-to-date gains. Bond yields rose, and gold took a hit. Energy prices are soaring.
The S&P 500 held up better in March, but not by much.
Long-term inflation expectations are... falling.
Gold has taken a hit but remains a major investment asset.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The geopolitical chaos orchestrated by Donald Trump in the Middle East continues unabated and is driving up energy prices. We are reducing our equity exposure (slightly), but without taking drastic measures or panicking.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REITs).
Currencies.
Performance Summary
Equity.
Bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
DIFC: This document is directed at Professional Clients as defined under the rules and regulations of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Probus Pleion Middle East Limited is regulated by the DFSA.
Switzerland: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Probus Pleion Suisse SA is regulated by the FINMA.
Mauritius: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Financial Services Commission (FSC). Probus Pleion Investment Adviser Ltd is licensed and regulated by the FSC.
Luxembourg: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. Clients’ data is protected under the REGULATION (EU) 2016/679 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 27 April 2016 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data and repealing Directive 95/46/EC (General Data Protection Regulation).
Data Privacy Policy Important Notice: Companies within the Probus Pleion Group recognise the importance of keeping the personal data of its customers and other counter-parties confidential and protecting their privacy rights. While each company within the Probus Pleion Group has its own privacy policy in accordance with the applicable standards, you may access Probus Pleion Group global privacy policy at the following URL:
