Monthly Report, August 2026
- Aug 2
- 3 min read
Editorial
Well, well... a major hedge fund collapses...
The "Situational Awareness" fund on the brink of collapse.
It is always the same story.
Microsoft and Amazon "are getting the house in order".
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
The binary view of the market - namely, a positive outlook on AI and a negative outlook on the software sector and hyperscalers - is over. Going forward, investors will need to take a more nuanced approach and analyse individual stocks in these sectors, even though the revolution brought about by AI remains unquestioned.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The slight economic recovery in Europe that emerged last month is now confirmed. The U.S. job market remains strong, and layoffs are at their lowest level since 1969. Oil prices are bouncing around and gold remains unchanged.
After March/April slowdown, eurozone is returning to growth.
Oil prices "bounced around" by developments in the Middle East.
The Fed is divided over its interest rate policy.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
The Swiss National Bank reported a profit of 25.2 billion francs in the first half of 2026. Foreign currency positions generated a profit of 31.7 billion francs. The gold reserves resulted in a loss of 6.4 billion francs. Interest-bearing securities and interest rate instruments recorded price losses of 1.7 billion francs, while equity securities and equity instruments (primarily shares held) recorded price gains of 22.9 billion. Finally, foreign exchange gains totalled 2.5 billion francs.
Financial markets during the month
The semiconductor sector is succumbing to a wave of profit-taking, while software stocks and some Mag7 stocks are rebounding. Long-term yields are rising again, as the BoJ and the Fed intervene in the yen market.
The "most crowded trades" are being partially unwound.
Long-term interest rates are on the rise again.
The BoJ and the Fed come to the Yen's rescue.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The overvaluation in the semiconductor sector has been partially corrected, while some previously neglected sectors are regaining investor favour. Long-term yields are rising again, but the dollar is not benefiting from this. The yen has finally rebounded following the coordinated intervention by the BoJ and the Fed. Gold remains steady.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REITs).
Currencies.
Performance Summary
Equity.
Bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
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