Monthly report, May 2025
- groupepleion
- May 1
- 3 min read
Updated: May 6
In the latest edition of our monthly report:
Editorial
The decline of the American empire
The US dollar has begun a long-term downtrend.
Treasury bills are no longer completely risk-free.
So far, promises and no results.
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
American exceptionalism, which prevailed in financial markets until recently, has reached its peak, and investors will have to relearn to better diversify their assets outside the US sphere, and no longer regard the dollar as a strong currency.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The “front-loading” of the US economy, where imports surged in anticipation of the implementation of customs taxes, generated, to everyone's surprise, a contraction in US GDP in the first quarter.
Anticipated Q1 imports “distort” the picture.
Gold peaks at $3,500 and begins consolidation.
The Liberals win in Canada.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
The turmoil in the financial markets impacted all asset classes, and once again, the Swiss franc was highly sought-after as a safe haven asset. Just as the euro looked set to break through the 0.96 level against the franc, market panic quickly sent the pair back towards its 0.92 support. With 2-year yields back in negative territory for the first time in 3 years, the SNB is expected to cut its benchmark rate to zero.
Financial markets during the month
Liberation Day did nothing to clarify the situation - quite the contrary. The announcement of massive tariffs shook the markets, dragging down equities, Treasuries and the US dollar. Gold took full advantage.
Volatility soars on Liberation Day.
U.S. Treasuries take a beating.
Gold is back in portfolios in a big way.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
Equity indices fell sharply in the wake of Liberation Day, only to recover towards the end of the month. US Treasuries also suffered heavy selling, but prices rebounded in the wake of mixed economic data. The US dollar continued its steep fall, while gold peaked at $3,500.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REIT).
Currencies.
Performance summary
Equity performances.
Performance of bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualised advice from his/her financial, legal and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
DIFC: This document is directed at Professional Clients as defined under the rules and regulations of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Probus Pleion Middle East Limited is regulated by the DFSA.
Switzerland: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Probus Pleion Suisse SA is regulated by the FINMA.
Mauritius: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Financial Services Commission (FSC).
Luxembourg: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. Clients’ data is protected under the REGULATION (EU) 2016/679 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 27 April 2016 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data, and repealing Directive 95/46/EC (General Data Protection Regulation).
Data Privacy Policy Important Notice: Companies within the Probus Pleion Group recognise the importance of keeping the personal data of its customers and other counter-parties confidential and protecting their privacy rights. While each company within the Probus Pleion Group has its own privacy policy in accordance with the applicable standards, you may access Probus Pleion Group global privacy policy at the following URL: https://www.probuspleion.com/data-protection-policy
