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Monthly Report, July 2025

Updated: Aug 5



Editorial


Summer is Going to Be (Very) Hot!

As we transition from spring storms, a heatwave is setting in. Expect temperatures to rise significantly. However, further storms are not ruled out. It’s wise to prepare for a slight drop in temperature later.


Market Consequences

The third quarter could be challenging. Markets are entering this period with little margin for safety. Keeping some cash in reserve is advisable. This strategy allows for seizing opportunities during turbulent times.


- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)


Economic Situation Assessment


The US job market is easing, but it shows no significant weakness. The Q1 GDP has been revised downwards. This adjustment primarily results from a surge in “pre-emptive imports”.


  • The US job market is weakening, but not drastically.

  • Oil prices soared and then collapsed, returning to square one.

  • The French 2026 budget presents challenges.


SNB's Monetary Policy Overview

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirmed market expectations during its last meeting on June 19. They cut the key rate by a quarter point to 0-0.25%. Recent Swiss inflation figures are slightly negative. The strength of the CHF and the weakness of the USD are adding deflationary pressure to our economy. Will the 2% rate differential with the euro be sufficient to prevent further appreciation of our currency against the euro?


Financial Markets Overview


The rebound in equity markets from May continued through June, especially in the US. The dollar has continued its decline, while bond yields have eased.


  • The S&P 500 reached an all-time high, but...

  • The market is urging the Fed for a third rate cut.

  • Currently, the market does not fully believe in gold mines.


Investment Convictions


Comments on Investment Decisions

U.S. equities are trading at high valuations again, especially as the deadline for tariffs approaches. European equities have stagnated over the past six weeks. However, the second half of the year could provide a more buoyant environment for them. Gold continues to consolidate, while the USD may rebound slightly in the short term.


  • Equities: The landscape appears mixed, with some sectors performing better than others.

  • Bonds: Interest rates are influencing bond performance significantly.

  • Precious Metals and REITs: These assets are showing resilience.

  • Currencies: The currency market remains volatile.


Performance Summary

  • Equity Performances: An overview of how different sectors are performing.

  • Bond, Currency, and Commodity Performance: A detailed look at trends in these markets.





Disclaimer

This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.


DIFC: This document is directed at Professional Clients as defined under the rules and regulations of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Probus Pleion Middle East Limited is regulated by the DFSA.


Switzerland: This document is directed at Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors as defined under the rules and regulations of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Probus Pleion Suisse SA is regulated by the FINMA.


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Data Privacy Policy Important Notice: Companies within the Probus Pleion Group recognise the importance of keeping the personal data of its customers and other counter-parties confidential and protecting their privacy rights. While each company within the Probus Pleion Group has its own privacy policy in accordance with the applicable standards, you may access Probus Pleion Group global privacy policy at the following URL: https://www.probuspleion.com/data-protection-policy

 
 
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