Monthly report, June 2025
- groupepleion
- Jun 1
- 3 min read
Updated: Jun 3
In the latest edition of our monthly report:
Editorial
Let’s get serious Mr. President!
A schoolyard attitude.
The courts are getting involved.
To date, only ONE “deal” has been signed and still...
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
Current equity market levels seem to us to price in an “ideal” scenario in the current trade war, even though nothing tangible has yet been finalised. The summer is likely to be a hot one, as tariff uncertainty remains high.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
Following the temporary “suspension” of customs duties, the US economic activity index rebounded in May, both for services and manufacturing. In Europe, caution remains the order of the day.
US economic activity indices rebound.
Oil remains affordable for consumers.
Conservatives win in Poland by a narrow margin.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
While until recently the markets were expecting a 100% probability of the SNB returning to negative rates, this probability has (fortunately) faded somewhat in recent weeks. Inflation in Switzerland is back to zero, and the EUR/CHF pair is unable to get off the ground above the 0.94 level. The dollar remains weak (against all currencies), adding further deflationary pressure. As long as the Swiss franc remains this strong, inflation will struggle to take off again.
Financial markets during the month
The adage “Sell in May and go away” did not come true, as all equity indices continued on the rebound they began on April 9. Bonds, the US dollar and gold stabilised, while oil climbs back slightly.
The DAX soars, buoyed by industry and banks.
The US Treasury market stabilises slightly.
Silver fails (yet) to break its resistance.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The rebound in equity markets has been remarkable given the particularly turbulent international context. A certain complacency on the part of the market is not out of the question and prompts us to remain vigilant. Seasonality in June is not very favourable, as the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches without tangible results.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REIT).
Currencies.
Performance summary
Equity performances.
Performance of bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualised advice from his/her financial, legal and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
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