Monthly Report, October 2025
- Matthieu
- Oct 1
- 3 min read
Updated: Oct 3
Editorial
The impact of currencies on performance
The strength of the franc is hurting performance in CHF.
The dollar is experiencing its worst year since 1973.
It would have been better to hedge the USD, yes, but...
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
The weakness of the greenback is likely to persist and boost the nominal performance of US equities, but above all that of emerging markets. At this stage, the big winner is gold, which offers the best protection against a further decline in the USD.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The US economic growth in Q2, revised upward twice, finally stands at 3.8%. French debt continues to increase, with no immediate political solutions in sight. Gold is soaring once again.
The US economy rebounds strongly in Q2.
Gold, silver, and platinum—it's party me!
The Fed “preventively” cuts interest rates by 0.25%.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
As initially hoped and subsequently expected, the SNB halted its cycle of rate cuts in September, after six rate cuts since March 2024. It expects moderate inflation of 0.2% this year, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027.
Economic growth will be modest, held back by US tariffs. Perhaps more importantly, its president Martin Schlegel emphasised the institution's reluctance to return to negative rates. Not ruled out, but unlikely.
Financial markets during the month
The negative seasonality of the stock market in September did not occur this year, with 2025 confirming its atypical status. AI remains a hot topic, while cryptocurrencies are slightly less so. Precious metals are in the spotlight.
The AI hype continues, with Oracle in the spotlight.
LVMH's debt better perceived than France's OAT.
Precious metals and currencies.
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The cycle of rate cuts is coming to an end in Europe, while the Fed has approved its first “pre-emptive” reduction in its key interest rate this year. German equities are taking a breather, while Chinese and Japanese markets are regaining momentum. The dollar remains weak, while precious metals are soaring.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious Metals and REITs.
Currencies.
Performance Summary
Equity.
Bonds, currencies and commodities.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
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