Monthly report, August 2025
- groupepleion
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 17 hours ago
Editorial
$39 billion surplus = 39% in taxes
When absurdity has no more limits
Swiss naivety in the face of an authoritarian regime
The market is (still) hoping for yet another U-turn
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
While the customs duties imposed on the EU and Japan are ultimately a lesser evil, the 39% imposed on Swiss industry is a real blow that is sure to weigh on the prices of many Swiss stocks in the coming quarters.
- by Kim Muller, CIO (Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
The US job market is weaker than expected, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.2%. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September rises to 80%, while European economic growth stagnates.
The US employment deemed too low, manager fired...
US copper premium “evaporates” in one trading session...
Democrats are not capitalising on the current chaos
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
The SNB announced a loss of CHF 15.3 billion in the first half of the year, mainly due to a CHF 22.7 billion loss on foreign exchange (primarily in USD). On the positive side, the gold position (unchanged in volume) yielded CHF 8.6 billion, following the surge in gold prices. If this result is confirmed in December, it would mean no dividend for the year. A dividend that could amount to CHF 3 billion, which the Confederation and the cantons would greatly need.
Financial markets during the month
The S&P 500 hit a new all-me high on July 31, following strong results from Microsoft and Meta. The bond market took note of weak US employment figures for July, while gold held steady.
Has the price of “Mag 6” gone too high?
The risk of (long) duration does not pay off
The Baltic Dry Index is on the rise again
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The US budget has been finalised, the debt ceiling raised, and most customs duties are now known. US corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, but the latest employment figures have cast doubt on future growth. Bonds are hesitant, gold is still consolidating, and the dollar is rebounding.
Equities: US equities rose again in July, driven by tech and AI enthusiasm, while Japan rebounded and Europe remained flat.
Bonds: Shifting central bank tones pushed up short-term yields in Europe, while weak US data revived Fed rate cut expectations.
Precious metals, listed real estate (REITs): Gold stayed flat, platinum dropped sharply, and REITs struggled under rate concerns, with a downgrade proving timely.
Currencies: The US dollar rebounded 3% after a steep fall, though future rate cut expectations could renew downward pressure.
Performance Summary
Equity performances: An overview of how different sectors are performing.
Bond, currency, and commodity performance: A detailed look at trends in these markets.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The statements and opinions it incorporates were formed after careful consideration and may be subject to change without notice. The author and distributors of this document expressly disclaim any and all liability for inaccuracies it may contain and shall not be held liable for any damage that may result from any use of the information presented herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Values of an investment may fall as well as rise. This document is intended for information purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment products or services. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from his/her financial, legal, and tax advisors that consider all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation.
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