Monthly Report, September 2026
- 19 hours ago
- 3 min read
Editorial
Everything we don’t see...
Guidance has become king.
The markets’ blind spot.
The break was sudden. Its build-up was not.
What consequences can we expect for the markets?
The market had priced in Nvidia almost to the dollar; it was, however, less prepared for the Warsh crack. This month's lesson: implied volatility may show up on the calendar, but real risk is measured elsewhere. Stay invested but keep an eye on what hasn't made the headlines yet.
- by Julien Malet, Senior Investment Advisor - Portfolio Manager (Geneva, Switzerland)
Assessment of the economic situation
US jobs growth is slowing, AI promises a productivity shock, and Warsh is toughening his tone: the Fed now favours fighting inflation over "forward guidance".
Is the US labour market starting to crack?
Oil stays under pressure, caught between geopolitical risk and hopes of normalisation.
The Fed wants to watch the market less… and be watched less in return.
What about the SNB's monetary policy?
August reinforced the SNB's "lower for longer" message. With a current policy rate of 0% and a 94% probability of no change at the September meeting, Switzerland offers the cheapest funding currency among major developed economies. As a result, some investors are even starting to view the franc as an alternative to the yen for their carry trade operations. The phenomenon remains embryonic but could explain the franc's recent pullback against the euro and dollar, a development that is rather welcome for the SNB and exporters.
Financial markets during the month
US headline indices stayed well-oriented in August, but their performance masks considerable dispersion between stocks and sectors. Meanwhile, long-term US rates (and not only US ones) returned to levels not seen in twenty years.
The S&P 500 rises. US stocks, less so.
When "risk-free" pays more than 5%.
Gold and Bitcoin rally: the return of the "debasement trade".
Our convictions
Comments on investment decisions
The strong dispersion in the US market has led us to favour cap-weighted indices once again. High long-term rates keep us cautious on duration, while the rally in gold and crypto assets reinforces the appeal of scarce assets.
Equities.
Bonds.
Precious metals and listed real estate (REITs).
Currencies.
Performance Summary
Equity.
Bonds, currencies and commodities.
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